DTN Early Word Livestock Comments 08/18 06:20
Cash Cattle Expected Higher
The livestock complex closed higher, supported by stronger cash. Live cattle
did not see much trade due to feedlots holding for higher prices. Hogs gained
as cash was higher even after the large increase on Tuesday.
DTN Contributing Analyst
Cattle: Higher Futures: Higher Live Equiv: $194.59 -$0.80*
Hogs: Lower Futures: Mixed Lean Equiv: $126.55 -$2.68**
*Based on formula estimating live cattle equivalent of gross packer revenue.
(The Live Cattle Equiv. Index has been updated to depict recent changes in live
cattle weights and grading percentages.)
** based on formula estimating lean hog equivalent of gross packer revenue.
Tightening supplies of cattle will be an ongoing concern as heifer and cow
slaughter has been running high for a while with much of this due to the
drought in areas. This will show up with lower numbers for some time to come.
Packers are concerned over that potential as the year progresses. For now,
feedlots are holding together, unwilling to let cattle go at lower prices. This
has pushed cash trading off to Thursday. Trade will likely be heavy Thursday as
business needs to be done. Feeder cattle continue to show strength with October
pushing to a new contract higher with September not far behind. The Cattle on
Feed report will be released on Friday. The average estimate for on feed supply
is 100.7%, placements 98.5% and marketings 97.1% of a year ago.
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