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Trump No-Show at APEC Risks Reputation 10/31 06:18
Trump's decision to skip APEC fits with his well-known disdain for the big,
multi-nation forums that have been traditionally used to address huge global
problems, and his relish of the kind of one-on-one diplomacy that can result in
big deals, or at least interesting headlines.
GYEONGJU, South Korea (AP) -- A hot mike caught U.S. President Donald Trump
saying that his much-anticipated meeting Thursday with Chinese President Xi
Jinping, meant to settle the most important trade relationship in the world,
would be "three, four hours" and he would then fly back to Washington.
It was actually much shorter, an hour and 40 minutes, but true to his word
he was on a plane well before the 21-member Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation
summit was to begin Friday.
Trump's decision to skip APEC fits with his well-known disdain for the big,
multi-nation forums that have been traditionally used to address huge global
problems, and his relish of the kind of one-on-one diplomacy that can result in
big deals, or at least interesting headlines.
But his blunt dismissal of this weekend's APEC diplomacy risks worsening
America's reputation at a forum that represents nearly 40% of the world's
population and more than half of global goods trade.
It also stands in contrast to China's approach.
Showing up matters in Asian diplomacy, and the Chinese leader is scheduled
to be in South Korea until the forum ends this weekend, hoping to gain wins in
Trump's absence.
What Trump's absence at APEC signals to the region
On social media Trump celebrated his meeting with Xi in South Korea as a
"G2," a recognition of America and China's status as the world's two biggest
economies and a play on the multi-national Group of Seven and Group of 20
forums.
Still, Trump tried to emphasize American ties to the broader region
throughout his trip, which started in Malaysia with the annual Association of
Southeast Asian Nations.
Xi did not go, and Trump told the "spectacular leaders" there that he
remained committed to the region and was "on a mission of friendship and
goodwill, and to deepen our ties of commerce, to strengthen our common security
and really to promote strongly stability, prosperity and peace."
Some analysts, however, describe a rudderless Asia policy by the Trump
administration.
"He does not appear to want his hands tied by a disciplined, coherent
strategy," Michael Green, who worked on former U.S President George W. Bush's
National Security Council and now leads the United States Studies Centre in
Sydney, Australia, said of Trump's Asia efforts.
It remains to be seen whether Trump's personalized brand of foreign policy
will erode U.S. influence and leadership, said Go Myong-hyun, an analyst at
South Korea's Institute of National Security Strategy.
"Of course, the United States' reputation will worsen compared to the
idealistic internationalism the rest of the world had long associated with
America," Go said. "But it's too early to say for sure whether the United
States' status and strengths are really in decline."
Issues that might be settled at APEC without Trump
APEC is a much less important gathering than it used to be, especially since
Washington began dismantling global trading norms under Trump, whose sweeping
U.S. tariffs have rattled friends and foes alike.
While the nations at APEC may agree on small issues, such as environmental
protection or job training, the forum's biggest value is now probably as an
opportunity for leaders to meet on the sidelines.
Trump's unilateral push to reset global trade especially rattles countries
like South Korea, whose export-driven economy depends on the postwar expansion
of free trade.
Oh Hyunjoo, a deputy director of South Korea's presidential national
security office, told reporters this week that it has been difficult to produce
a joint statement between APEC members "because the basic rule-based order
based on the World Trade Organization is now beginning to crack."
Even without Trump's participation in the main event, however, the APEC
forum in South Korea will allow Seoul to expand international discussions over
AI, aging populations and other global issues, said Ban Kil Joo, a professor at
South Korea's National Diplomatic Academy.
"We're entering an era shaped by AI, while also facing global challenges
such as population decline and climate change, so even if the agenda doesn't
explicitly include 'free trade,' there are many issues that countries must
jointly confront and solve together," Ban said.
What China hopes to gain from APEC
Trump's absence focuses attention on Xi and on a rising China, but that's
not entirely a good thing for Beijing.
"The world is preparing for a post-U.S. era," said Wang Yiwei, an
international relations professor at Renmin University of China in Beijing. "It
has become a common consensus that there is no U.S. in APEC, or there is a U.S.
with less input or without leadership. The world has higher expectations for
China."
At the same time, Wang said, China hopes Trump will attend next year's APEC
leaders meeting, which China will host.
"Without China-U.S. cooperation, China cannot lead the world, nor does it
want to," he said. "It is hoped that the U.S. could return to the APEC family
and the globalization family."
China has been positioning itself as a defender of free trade and an
alternative economic partner to countries facing Trump's tariffs, as Premier Li
Qiang did at a meeting of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations this week
-- after Trump had already left the gathering.
China's state-owned Global Times newspaper said Xi will deliver an important
speech at APEC at a time of global economic uncertainty, rising protectionism
and rapid technological transformation.
"'Chinese wisdom' and 'Chinese solutions' have become one of the focal
points of attention at this APEC meeting," an editorial by the newspaper said.
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