03/20/26 04:59:00
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03/20 16:57 CDT Number of perfect March Madness brackets dwindles to a precious
few in Day 2
Number of perfect March Madness brackets dwindles to a precious few in Day 2
By WILL GRAVES
AP Sports Writer
The odds of a picking perfect NCAA Tournament bracket are astronomical for a
reason.
The number of unblemished entries in ESPN's bracket challenge dropped to fewer
than 4,500 by midafternoon Friday, despite chalky early results as Kentucky and
Virginia avoided upsets at the hands of double-digit seeds.
Still, well over 99.9% of the 26 million-plus brackets entered have already
been busted.
Things were off to a slightly better start for those who gave ESPN's women's
bracket challenge a shot. More than 1.4 million perfect brackets remained after
Friday's early games, though 2 million entries had already fallen by the
wayside.
Kalshi, a leader in prediction markets --- in which users buy and trade shares
based on potential event outcomes --- is offering $1 billion (yes, that's
billion with a "b") to anyone who predicts all 63 tournament games correctly,
with a "consolation" prize of $1 million to the person who finishes with the
top-scoring bracket.
The dream of becoming a billionaire was still alive for 83 people when Friday's
games tipped off.
The unpredictability of the tournament is one of the reasons the odds of going
63-0 are somewhere between one in 9.2 quintillion (for totally random guesses)
or one in 120 billion (semi-educated ones).
It can also serve as a boon for bookmakers. A record $3.3 billion is expected
to be wagered legally on the men's tournament, according to the American Gaming
Association.
While hard numbers on the amount of wagering done Thursday were unavailable,
BetMGM spokesman John Ewing noted the tournament --- which he said generates
about as much action as the Super Bowl --- is one of the uncommon instances
where bettors put their money where their hearts are.
Though the top seeds have performed well in recent years, a lot of the action
during the opening weekend goes elsewhere as fans try to cash in on potential
Cinderellas.
"In March Madness, underdogs and upsets are such a popular theme and part of
our culture that even though favorites have done so well lately, we still see
underdogs taking a majority of bets in many games," Ewing said.
That was certainly the case on Thursday night when 16th-seeded Siena opened a
double-digit lead over top-seeded Duke. Wagers on the Saints pulling off the
stunner spiked at halftime, meaning the house did pretty well when the Blue
Devils rallied.
While Duke survived and advanced, its struggles did not go unnoticed. The Blue
Devils opened the tournament as the betting favorites to win it all.
That wasn't the case Friday morning, when Arizona replaced Duke as the top
choice among futures bettors at BetMGM, followed by Michigan, with the Blue
Devils falling to third.
Ewing said the dip was more about support for the Wildcats than it was a knock
on Duke. He added there have been wagers of $50,000 on Arizona and Houston to
win it all, with another bettor putting $100,000 on Purdue to reach the Final
Four.
Betting interest in the women's tournament continues to increase, which Ewing
attributed to part of the ripple effect of Caitlin Clark bringing more eyes to
the sport. The ability to watch every game has also helped.
"I think people are just realizing it's just as much fun as the men's
tournament," Ewing said.
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AP March Madness bracket: https://apnews.com/hub/ncaa-mens-bracket and
coverage: https://apnews.com/hub/march-madness
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