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Russia Sits Back as Iran War Escalates 03/09 06:21
MOSCOW (AP) -- As U.S. and Israeli missiles and bombs rain on Iran, Russia
has responded with words of indignation but no visible action to support its
Middle Eastern ally.
That cautious stance is driven by President Vladimir Putin's focus on
Ukraine and his apparent hope that the Iran war will play into Moscow's hands
by boosting its oil revenues and eroding Western support for Kyiv.
Putin sent his condolences to Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian, condemning
the killing of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei last weekend as a
"cynical violation of all norms of human morality and international law."
While Moscow's failure to help another ally after the 2024 ouster of former
Syrian ruler Bashar Assad and January's U.S. arrest of Venezuelan leader
Nicolas Maduro highlighted the limits to its influence, the Kremlin expects to
reap benefits from the Iran war.
Russia already is profiting from a surge in energy prices over the war's
disruptions to tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and damage to energy
facilities in Gulf countries. If hostilities escalate, a continued windfall
would help fill Moscow's coffers to finance military operations in Ukraine and
patch the budget deficit.
The Kremlin also hopes the Iran war will distract global attention from
Ukraine, deplete Western arsenals and force the U.S. and its NATO allies to
reduce military support for Kyiv.
A swift Russian rebuke
Hours after the war began Feb. 28, the Russian Foreign Ministry denounced
the U.S. and Israeli attack on Iran as a "deliberate, premeditated, and
unprovoked act of armed aggression against a sovereign and independent U.N.
member state, in direct violation of the fundamental principles and norms of
international law."
A week into the war, Putin had a call with Pezeshkian, saying Moscow wants
to see a quick end to hostilities. But before that, he had a series of calls
with Gulf leaders in an apparent bid to cement ties with the countries that are
increasingly important for Moscow as part of the OPEC+ grouping controlling
global oil prices and key trade partners helping bypass Western sanctions.
The Kremlin said Putin will convey to Tehran the Gulf leaders' "deep concern
about the strikes on their infrastructure" and "make every effort to facilitate
at least minor easing of tensions."
In a subsequent call with his Iranian counterpart, Russia's Foreign Minister
Sergey Lavrov "underscored the priority of ensuring the safety of civilians and
protecting civilian infrastructure in all the countries of the region."
Mark Galeotti, an expert on Russian politics who heads the Mayak
Intelligence consultancy, noted that "Russia has actually been quite an
effective operator within the Middle East." He said that as the war escalates,
many regional powers may have reason "to look a little bit more to Moscow."
Uneasy partners
While Moscow and Tehran signed a "comprehensive strategic partnership"
treaty in January 2025, their relationship had a troubled past and remained
tinged with rivalry.
Even though Russia and Iran shared opposition to the Western-led
"rules-based order," "Iran was always something of a strategic frenemy" to
Russia, Galeotti said in a recent podcast.
Tensions ran high between Moscow and Tehran during the Cold War, when Shah
Mohammad Reza Pahlavi was a staunch U.S. ally. When Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini
led the 1979 Islamic Revolution, branding the U.S. as the "Great Satan," he
labeled the Soviet Union as the "Lesser Satan."
Russia-Iran ties warmed quickly after the USSR's 1991 breakup as Moscow
became an important trade partner and helped build Iran's first nuclear power
plant in Bushehr. When Syria's civil war erupted in 2011, Russia and Iran
pooled efforts to shore up Assad's government but failed to prevent the swift
collapse of his rule in December 2024.
After Putin sent troops into Ukraine in February 2022, Tehran provided
Russia with Shahed drones and later licensed their production in Russia.
But even as it has built ties with Iran, Russia also has remained friendly
with Israel, angering many in the Iranian leadership who were suspicious of
Moscow's intentions.
"Russia's relationship with Iran, despite the latter's staunch opposition to
the U.S., has always been complex and challenging," Moscow-based military
analyst Sergei Poletaev said in a commentary.
When the U.S. and Israel struck Iran in June 2025, Russian officials
underlined that their "strategic partnership" didn't envisage mutual military
assistance in case of aggression.
Asked Thursday whether Moscow could go beyond rhetoric and provide Iran with
weapons, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov responded that it has received no such
requests from Tehran.
On Friday, two officials familiar with U.S. intelligence told The Associated
Press that Russia has provided Iran with information that could help Tehran
strike American warships, aircraft and other assets in the region.
The people, who were not authorized to comment publicly on the sensitive
matter and spoke on the condition of anonymity, cautioned that the U.S.
intelligence has not uncovered that Russia is directing Iran on what to do with
the information.
Peskov said Friday that Russia is "in dialogue with the Iranian side, with
representatives of the Iranian leadership, and will certainly continue this
dialogue." Pressed on whether Russia has provided any military or intelligence
assistance to Tehran since the war's start, he refrained from comment.
Little damage seen to Putin's authority
While Khamenei's killing revived talk of Russia's failure to protect an
ally, some observers warned against exaggerating the damage to Putin's
authority.
Galeotti noted that Russia and Iran "were always very pragmatic allies
rather than anything else."
"Iran is a rival for authority in the Middle East and indeed within the
South Caucasus," he said. "If this regime doesn't actually fall, but has its
wings clipped, from Russia's point of view that actually might make it a rather
more amenable temporary strategic partner."
China -- a key customer for Iranian oil -- will likely boost imports of
Russian crude as hostilities expand. After pressuring India to halt its imports
of Russian oil, the U.S. on Thursday issued a 30-day waiver allowing its
refineries to buy those supplies currently at sea. Turkey could boost its
natural gas imports from Russia if supplies from Iran are disrupted.
Sam Greene, a professor at King's College London, also observed that "the
idea that Putin suffers when he loses allies -- whether Assad, Maduro or
Khamenei -- exists entirely in the heads of Western analysts and has no basis
in observable fact."
There's zero evidence "that he cares, that it affects his authority at home
or his legitimacy abroad," he said in a post on X.
The Putin-Trump relationship
Putin will not risk his relationship with U.S. President Donald Trump to
help Iran, Greene said, arguing that "as miffed as Putin might be personally,
he's not going to throw his relationship with Trump under the bus."
The president, he said, "is Putin's greatest source of leverage over Europe.
He'll keep his eye on the ball."
As the U.S. and its allies quickly use up their arsenals of Patriot
interceptors to fend off Iranian missiles targeting Israel and the Gulf
countries, Russia can only be gleeful over the scenario.
"A prolonged conflict would not only draw attention away from Ukraine but
would also redirect crucial resources like missile defense systems to the
Persian Gulf," Poletaev said.
Noted Galeotti: "The more Patriots that get used up in this conflict ... the
fewer available to the Americans generally and more uncomfortable they will
feel about passing or selling any of them to the Ukrainians."
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